How Seasonal Trends Effect FX Markets? | Retirement

by Hass67

Most forex traders analyze and predict the future direction of currencies using fundamental or technical analysis. The craftier among them use the combination of both to predict direction of forex markets.

Fundamental analysis studies the long term effect of economic forces on currency markets whether financial or socio political using various economic indicators. Technical analysis is based on the premise that all available information is already compounded into the prices and the future prices can be predicted based on past prices.

If you have been trading stocks, you must be familiar with the term: The January Effect. It has been observed over a long period of time that stocks tend to perform very well between the last week of December and the first week of January.

The explanation of the January Effect is simple. During the last few days of the year, many investors are concerned about their tax returns. They try to realize capital gains or losses to file their tax returns. Many corporations also use the end of the year to face lift their balance sheets favorably at the end of the year.

Now the interesting fact is that seasonality is not common to the stock markets. Forex markets also show seasonal effects. Seasonality is defined as a trend or pattern that occurs at some particular part of the year.

The January Effect also takes place in forex markets due to the same reasons. Many investors who are adjusting their stock positions try to convert their local currencies into dollars at that time.

However, dollar shows stronger January Effect in some currency pairs as compared to others. There is a summer effect also. It has also been observed that dollar shows a summer seasonality when it tends to rise in USD/JPY pair and USD/CAD pair in the month of July and give back its gains by August.

There are other seasonal patterns that have been studied in other parts of the year. Now, it does not mean that these seasonal effects take place exactly the same way every year.

Seasonality only shows that there are strong probabilities that during a particular period of the year, the chances of a certain currency pair going up or down are more pronounced.

In certain years, the effect may be pronounced. Just remember that many economic forces play a role in effecting the currencies so in other years, the seasonal effects may not be so pronounced. As a forex trader, you only need to understand these seasonal effects while trading during that time of the year.

DISCLAIMER: This article is provided as information only and is not to be taken as financial advice.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading; stocks and forex. Read about Trend Forex System. Best Forex Signal Service. Learn Forex Trading.