| Choosing A Forex Signal Provider - A Look At Win Percentage |
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| Written by Tom K Kearns |
| Tuesday, 20 October 2009 01:25 |
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One would obviously surmise that a trader with a % of winning trades nearing the 100% mark would be a very good bet. Side B then would tell us that a trader with a win % closer to 0% would be a very bad bet. Obviously, winning a great many trades is a good thing, but that would be to oversimplify the matter. The hope of this article is to explain to you why a 95% win rate is way more of a loser than a 65% win rate.
One would obviously surmise that a trader with a % of winning trades nearing the 100% mark would be a very good bet. Side B then would tell us that a trader with a win % closer to 0% would be a very bad bet. Obviously, winning a great many trades is a good thing, but that would be to oversimplify the matter. The hope of this article is to explain to you why a 95% win rate is way more of a loser than a 65% win rate. First we'll take a look at traders with a low win rate. We will classify 0% to ~40% as low. If a trader fits into this range, then the closer they are to zero probably means the worse they are. Most traders in this lower range are losing traders. You will occasionally find a trader who attempts to catch very large moves with very tight stops. This type of trader may have an extremely low win % and still be a very successful trader. Next, let us look at the 40% - 70% range. Most of your winning traders will fall somewhere in here. They win not because the majority of their trades are winners with few losers. It is quite possible that have more losing trades than winning ones. Their success comes from their ability to correctly manage their trades once opened. They take advantage of stops that will then be executed more often than not. This looks for all the world like a losing trade, and it is, but a small loser. The traders that can manage their trades effectively most often are the ones that are able to cut their losses and allow their winners to take off. There are very few traders out there who have the discipline to take advantage of this simple concept. The final group we are going to be concerned with is the one with very high wins of greater than 70%. More people gravitate to them the closer they get to the 100% mark. These people should do the opposite and leave such traders alone. Unfortunately, few of them do. By taking profit off of the table immediately on appearance, these traders seem to have an extremely high win record. This strategy would work if these same traders also cut losses in the same manner. Traders who have a 95% plus win rate will not be looking at this strategy. They will normally let a loser run ad infinitum and even add to that position much of the time rather than accepting the small loss and moving on with their trading day. Allowing a loser to run like this will in the course of time wipe out months or more of winning trades in one fell swoop and is definitely not the road to success. Keep in mind that one 500 pip loser wipes out all the gains of 500 one pip winners. On the surface, this type of trader has over 99% winning trades. In fact, he could easily have an overall losing record. Do not think for one minute that the reason for this article is to convince you that no trader outside the specified ranges is automatically a losing trader. I'm quite sure that there are traders that are successful with a win percent falling outside of the above ranges. The point of this article is to lead you to thoroughly investigate the trader with the 95% win rate as he could implode upon himself (and you) at any minute. DISCLAIMER: This article is provided as information only and is not to be taken as financial advice. To learn more about Automated Forex Trading Systems or to choose a signal provider at Zulutrade visit http://www.automatedforextradingsystems.com . |
| Last Updated on Wednesday, 16 December 2009 18:09 |